Strong oil and gas demand are set to support production growth in the Permian Basin, says GlobalData
Global oil demand has been on the rise since the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused major alterations in energy supply routes, which went in favour of the US shale drillers, including those in the Permian Basin.
Spanning Texas and New Mexico, Permian Basin remains the largest oil-producing shale player in the US. Strong global demand and geopolitical shifts continue to support growth and competitiveness of this critical energy region, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, Permian Basin in the US, 2024, reveals that benefiting from a dense pipeline network and Gulf Coast infrastructure, Permian Basin’s crude oil production averaged 5.6 million barrels per day (mmbd) during the first quarter of 2024.
The growth was attributed to the strong global demand for fossil fuels in 2023. Looking ahead, the steady demand for hydrocarbons around the world will aid the crude oil and natural gas production in the Permian Basin to record a CAGR of more than 4% and more than 6%, respectively, between 2024 and 2028.
Geopolitical Impacts
Ravindra Puranik, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, comments: ‘Europe’s strategic shift away from Russian energy exports has resulted in key changes to the global energy supplies. This is anticipated to benefit the US shale oil and gas drillers as well as LNG producers that are positioned to reap rewards from these evolving supply chain dynamics. The US shale oil production might also benefit from the Red Sea crisis that has added a risk premium to ship-based exports from the Middle East to Europe.’
The US Presidential election looms this year amid high inflation concerns, hence the presidential nominees are unlikely to pledge any new regulatory measures on shale drilling. This could bode well for the outlook for unconventional resource development in the country.
Puranik continues: ‘Recessionary pressures in major world economies, along with geopolitical headwinds, such as the Gaza conflict and its wider implications on energy supplies from the Middle East are expected to keep the oil prices range bound this year.’
Financial Changes
Owing to the promising energy demand outlook, the competitive landscape in the Permian Basin has seen a wave of consolidation with several high-value deals transpiring in 2023. This trend has continued so far, even in 2024.
The merger and acquisition activity in the Permian Basin is set to make the market more competitive in the long-term. In May 2024, ConocoPhillips announced the acquisition of Marathon Oil for a purchase consideration of $22.5 billion (€20.4 billion). The deal is expected to be closed by December 2024.
Occidental’s announcement of the $12 billion acquisition of CrownRock in December 2023, and Chevron’s announcement of the $7.6 billion acquisition of PDC Energy in May 2023, were the other high-value deals in the Permian Basin shale play in 2023.
On the drilling front, the permit activity in the shale play grew marginally for the first two quarters of 2024 as compared with the same period in 2023, indicating largely flat growth in hydrocarbon output.
Puranik says: ‘Exxon Mobil’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources was the biggest deal in the Permian Basin shale play in the recent years. The deal, worth $64.5 billion, has put ExxonMobil on the top of the pedestal, surpassing competitors in this play, such as Occidental and Chevron. Continued investment and strategic acquisitions in the Permian Basin will be essential to maintaining its leadership in the US shale industry, especially as global energy dynamics shift and demand for reliable oil and gas supplies remains strong.’
