The global oil landscape is changing, with Asia becoming the central growth driving and evolving supply-demand patterns impacting market dynamics. The team at S&P Commodity Insights will be covering this exact topic, and more, at APPEC 20205, taking place on 8-11 September in Singapore.
‘It’s been quite a year,’ says Jim Burkhard, S&P Global Commodity Insights vice president & head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility. ‘When you look back at all the developments this year – from President Trump going back to the White House again, the tariffs, and the Iran-Israeli conflict – it has injected uncertainty when it comes to how we look at the oil market.’
One surprise this year has been OPEC+’s accelerated production increases. ‘A year ago, we expected OPEC+ to boost output, but not at this pace, Burkhard explains. OPEC+ has been unwinding their previous 2.2 million barrel-per-day cuts faster than anticipated since April, strengthening a bearish price trend.
India’s growth rising
A noteworthy change is underway between Asia’s two major powers. While China has dominated oil demand growth this century, that torch is now passing to India. ‘Chinese demand for gasoline and diesel has peaked or plateaued, while demand in India is still growing,’ Burkhard notes. In fact, India’s total liquids demand exceeded China’s in 2024 – a significant milestone that shows how energy and commodities demand.
This transition extends beyond crude oil into petrochemical feedstocks, where geopolitics are complicating strategies. US-China trade tensions have ensnared natural gas liquids (NGLs) markets, notably ethane imports that China relies on for petrochemical production. ‘[NGLs] are right in the middle of the geopolitical challenges – it’s not just crude oil anymore,’ Burkhard says.
Despite the recent Israel-Iran ceasefire, Asian buyers remain concerned about supply security. With 20 million barrels daily flowing through the Strait of Hormuz – mostly destined for Asian markets – there’s simply no substitute for Gulf supplies. China has been building inventories. ‘Diversity of suppliers is, for whatever you’re buying – crude oil, natural gas – a cornerstone of energy security,’ says Burkhard.
Jim Burkhard will deliver a keynote speech at APPEC 2025 on 8-11 September at Raffles City Convention Centre, Singapore. Register now to join the conference.
