On 27 July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US president Donald Trump announced a political agreement under which the EU would commit to purchasing $250 billion (€217 billion) worth of US energy annually — totalling $750 billion (€653 billion) over three years. This includes liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and nuclear fuel.
This energy commitment was presented as part of a broader political trade package aimed at improving transatlantic relations and avoiding new tariffs.
The agreement also includes:
- A proposed 15% US tariff on EU goods
- An EU investment pledge of $600 billion (€521 billion) in the US, over and above existing levels
According to the Commission, the agreement between the EU and the US includes the intention to procure more US liquified natural gas (LNG), oil, and nuclear fuels and cutting-edge technologies and investments over the next three years until the end of 2028. With an expected offtake valued at around $750 billion (€700 billion) over this entire period, the agreement will contribute to implementing Europe’s REPowerEU Plan and Roadmap to fully replace all Russian energy imports.
Some key concerns from European energy companies include technical and logistical limits, as the EU would need to triple current energy imports from the US, which is seen as technically unfeasible. Last year, EU energy imports from the US amounted to only $76 billion (€66 billion). Equally, the US exported $166 billion (€144 billion) in oil and gas globally in 2023, meaning nearly all its exports would have to be redirected to the EU to meet the pledge.
Climate advocates warn that the deal could derail EU climate targets by locking the EU into long-term LNG contracts, risking dependency and structurally higher energy costs. Critics also question how the deal aligns with EU ambitions to support domestic green industries and manage rising energy costs.
However, the Commission states: ‘The EU-US trade deal does not undermine EU’s determination to decarbonise our economies within a clear timeframe. While the deal involves an increase in energy imports from the US over the next three years, it is fully compatible with our medium- and long-term policy to diversify our energy sources and to implement the REPowerEU Roadmap so that we fully phase out Russian energy imports as soon as possible. The EU remains fully committed to achieving climate-neutrality by 2050 – the core objective of the European Green Deal. The European Commission just proposed an updated Climate Law with an ambitious 90% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2040.’
The Commission has acknowledged that discussions are still ongoing. Questions remain about how any targets would be met, who would be responsible, and how infrastructure constraints would be addressed. Companies in both regions will not be required to sign contracts as part of this political agreement, and commercial decisions will still be based on price, regulation, and demand.
The EU’s upcoming rules on methane emissions may affect US LNG exporters. US lobbying efforts are already underway to soften these rules, supported by several Central and Eastern European countries. There is likely to be increasing political discussion within the EU about how to balance energy security with climate ambitions.
