RUSSIA, THE ENERGY TRANSITION & THE MARKET

Channoil Energy’s director, Mark Waddington, looks at how global events are set to impact the energy market in 2023. Major events have always shaped global energy markets, no less so than in the last three years. We have gone from a pandemic-led downturn to a sharp economic recovery, then to a war in Europe. 2023 is likely to be shaped by the return of China’s economy from strict lockdowns and the gradual recovery of other regions. There will also continue to be trade-offs between security of supply and driving the energy transition. RUSSIA TURBULENCE Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caused major turbulence in energy markets. Europe has since been building its ability to become independent from Russian supply. Sanctions in Europe have forced Russian trading houses to leave their European offices and relocate to the Middle East, a location that many Russian shipments pass through on their way to Eastern destinations. Essentially, Russia now relies on trading with a restricted bloc of nations and those that are outside of this bloc have reorganised their own; but at a cost and with greater stresses and risks in the system. This increases the likelihood of price...